MEMO: Why it is Better to be Accurate than Fast

To: Interested Parties

Subj: Why it is Better to be Accurate than Fast

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As we get closer to Election Day, prediction models and public polling indicate that this election will be historically close. The 2016 election was decided by about 72,000 voters across three states, while the 2020 election was decided by about 42,000 voters across three states, and it took five days for a winner to be declared. In the 2024 election, the margins could be even closer and it could take even longer for America to know the outcome, as all available data points to a toss-up. 

Accordingly, it’s important for the media and public actors to be responsible, patient, and measured in their analysis of election returns. Accurate vote counting – especially in close elections – takes time. If it takes multiple days to understand who won the election, it is more important to be accurate than fast.  

Unfortunately, we know from past experience and their own words that MAGA Republicans will try to leverage that uncertainty to plant seeds of confusion and sow doubts. 

Our shared objective must be to ensure that:

  1. every vote counts, and
  2. election results are certified without obstruction

In service of that, this memo lays out key baseline facts, addresses key areas of confusion, and provides clarity wherever possible. More updates will be released before and after Election Day.

Outlined below are three buckets of information:

  1. GOP Laying Groundwork To Falsely Sow Doubt: Proof points detailing how Republicans in Congress have been laying the groundwork at the federal level to raise questions about the integrity of the election for the past decade – both from a messaging and a legislative perspective. 
  2. GOP Laws Intended To Confuse: Details about how Republican legislators have been passing laws at the state level to make it more difficult for states and localities to accurately and quickly administer our elections.
  3. What To Expect in Reality: Timing and sequencing for what to expect from swing states as election results start to come in. Many have been communicating proactively about what they expect to see in terms of timing. 

The GOP is actively working to sow doubt and make people think there’s a conspiracy to steal the election. Don’t take the bait.

For well over a year, leading conservatives, including The Heritage Foundation, Speaker Mike Johnson, and former President Donald Trump, have been spreading lies about our elections for the explicit purpose of making Americans doubt the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. The strategy has been effective: 34% of Trump voters now say they are not confident that the results of the election will be accurately counted and reported.

Key facts on this effort:

  • This wide reaching, long-term plan to overrule the will of Americans has been funded by a “secretive billionaire network,” which has given over $140 million to almost 50 groups focused on “election integrity.”
  • By laying this legislative and messaging groundwork well ahead of time, MAGA Republicans believe they will have more to point back to should they lose at the ballot box in November. Here are a few key quotes that lay out this plan:
    • September 16, 2024: “Trump summarized his concerns into one rant in an interview with conservative radio host Wayne Allyn Root: “We have a rigged election. We have bad borders, we have very bad elections. We have a bad voting system. We have mail-in ballots.”
    • July 11, 2024: “As things stand right now, there’s a zero percent chance of a free and fair election,” said Mike Howell, Executive Director of Heritage Foundation Oversight Project. As the Washington Post reported, he “offered that conclusion as justification for doubting the outcome of the 2024 election and trying to reject anything other than a Trump victory.”
    • May 11, 2024: As reported by the New York Times, Speaker Mike Johnson indicated that he believes adhering to the Constitution can mean challenging the results.
    • September 24, 2024: When asked if he would commit to certifying the results of the election, Speaker Mike Johnson only said “if we have a free, fair and safe election, we’re going to follow the Constitution.” He later said “we’ve got to make it too big to rig” and there “were all sorts of concerns about fraud and irregularity” in the 2020 election. In 2020, Johnson echoed Trump’s lies about fraud and voted to overturn Biden’s wins in Arizona and Pennsylvania.
    • October 25, 2024: The chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, Representative Andy Harris, said that it “makes a lot of sense” for the North Carolina Legislature to allocate the state’s presidential electors to Donald Trump before votes are even counted. 
    • January 6, 2021: House Majority Leader Scalise also parroted Trump’s false claims about electoral fraud in 2020 and joined in opposing certification of Biden’s victory because of “serious questions about the integrity of the electoral process.”
    • November 15, 2020: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer speculated that the outcome of the 2020 election was “questionable” and that absentee votes “skewed” the election against Trump. He also signed onto lawsuits to overturn the results for Trump. 
    • CNN published a fact check of twelve lies “Donald Trump is using to set the stage to dispute a potential 2024 defeat.”
  • And Republicans in Congress have coupled their messaging with introduced legislation or proposals that would:
    • Perpetuate false claims that non-citizens are voting in our elections en masse (H.R.8281 – SAVE Act)
    • Impose nationwide voter ID for requesting mail-in ballots (Uniform State ACE Act)
    • Cut off federal funding for states where community organizations currently assist in returning mail-in ballots (Uniform State ACE Act)
    • Protect the ability of foreign corporations to engage in electoral activity via their American subsidiaries and reduce their reporting requirements (H.R.4563 – ACE Act)

None of these bills ever had the hope of becoming law or would actually improve the integrity of our elections. But by introducing them in this Congress, Republican legislators have set up possible ‘proof points’ that they were working toward ‘solutions’ for the problems they may claim cost them the election.

Meanwhile, Republican legislators are actively working in the states to make it harder to administer elections.

Republicans’ state-level legislative agenda around voting has both made it harder for Americans to vote, but also cynically reinforced MAGA Republicans’ core assertion that our elections are rigged and the process of administering them is broken. 

As Tim Robinson said, “we’re all trying to find the guy who did this!”

Here are just a few examples that illustrate how Republican legislators have further broken election administration systems in the states since last claiming the election was rigged just four years ago:

  • Laws passed in Florida and Georgia have reduced the number of ballot drop boxes available to voters in each state, in some cases eliminating the possibility of their use during after-work or weekend hours. A Republican member of Fulton Count’s election board also recently filed a lawsuit challenging a judge’s order that election leaders in the state must vote to certify election results by the legal deadline.
  • Wisconsin has seen a drastic reduction of ballot drop boxes – from over 500 in 430 communities in 2020 to a reported 78 boxes in 42 communities this year – with Wasau Mayor Doug Diny going so far as to remove his city’s dropbox himself.
  • MAGA Republicans have attempted to challenge the legitimacy of votes cast by overseas U.S. citizens and military members (votes that often take longer to count), through lawsuits in Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. 
  • In Arizona, several state senators, including State Senators Sonny Borrelli and Wendy Rogers, told election officials that counting ballots by hand was legal – despite the Secretary of State’s office and Attorney General’s office contending the opposite. In other words, they were telling officials to explicitly violate the federal and state laws that require safe and secure vote counting and do not allow counties to unilaterally substitute hand counts in lieu of certified processes. 
    • Even Republicans have found hand counting to be much more expensive and less accurate than tested electronic counting methods. In 2022, the all-Republican board of Mohave County voted against hand counting after a test count resulted in mistakes in dozens of races and a projected cost of over a million dollars for one small county.  
  • The Bradford County Board of Elections in Pennsylvania recently decided that voters cannot correct flaws on their mail-in ballots. A flaw or mistake can include voters not signing their return envelopes as required by law, forgetting to place their ballots inside the secrecy envelope or not dating the return envelope. Instead of placing ballots with mistakes as “pending,” the ballots would be canceled and voters would have to visit a polling place and request a provincial ballot to vote. 
  • Arizona has a new law that requires poll workers to reconcile early ballots dropped off in-person on Election Day. It caused roughly 45-minute delays in the primary, and is expected to delay results perhaps by several hours on election night in the general election.

And of course, the biggest delays in counting will likely come as a result of reduced staffing capacity for election administration due to the chronic underfunding of election administration. This is directly tied to the infusion of HAVA & CARES Act grants that supported infrastructure improvements and were not meaningfully renewed post-2020. This budget shortfall has just begun to be covered, including by the Wall Street Journal in their reporting from the closing weeks of the 2024 campaign, “which some election experts said has left state and local election officials underfunded and understaffed – and could lead to disorganization and chaos on Election Day.”

Here’s what everyone should expect on Election Day:

Polling released by the nonpartisan organization States United shows that large majorities of people in swing states think they’ll know who won the presidential election in their state by the day after Election Day. Based on historic vote counting patterns, we know this may not be the case. Even the head of Fox’s decision desk is on record saying, “…the over/under is Saturday, which was when the call was made last time.”

Here is what immediate past precedent suggests we should expect from key swing states as votes are counted following the close of polls. Critically, it is important to remember that these are not anomalies. And as stated before – it is more important to be accurate than it is to be fast.

  • Pennsylvania: Due to Pennsylvania law, mail-in ballots cannot be processed until 7 AM on Election Day and cannot be tabulated until polls have closed. The first reported results will mostly be mail-in ballots, later results will include more in-person votes, and beginning the day after the elections most votes processed will again be mostly mail-in ballots. In 2020, Biden led early in the initial returns but by 10 PM, Trump took the lead. By early Wednesday, Trump led Biden by almost 700,000 votes. Over the week of counting Trump’s margin diminished until Biden re-took the lead on Friday. The AP called the state on Saturday, November 7, 2020, at 11:25 AM ET with Biden winning by roughly 80,000 votes. 
  • Michigan: Michigan updated their laws this cycle to allow most large jurisdictions to begin processing and tabulating mail-in ballots starting eight days before Election Day. Prior to this election, workers were not allowed to pre-process mail in ballots for counting until the night before the election. Because of this change, Michigan may have less of a “red mirage” than in prior elections but it will also be harder to compare to past results. In 2020, Trump had an initial lead based on Election Day voting after polls closed. Trump’s margin diminished overnight and into Wednesday morning and by Wednesday afternoon, Biden took the lead. The AP called the state for Biden on Wednesday, November 4, 2020 at 5:58 PM ET, with Biden winning by roughly 150,000 votes.
  • Arizona: Arizona processes and tabulates mail in ballots upon receipt if delivered prior to Election Day. Mail-in ballots received on Election Day are not processed or verified until after polls close, thus taking much longer to tabulate. In 2020, nearly 20% of Maricopa County’s votes cast were mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day. Initial reported results are primarily pre-processed mail-in ballots, which tend to favor Democratic candidates. In 2022, Senator Mark Kelly started election night with a 20% margin over Blake Masters, which gradually narrowed to 5% as more returns were counted. The AP called the state for Biden on Wednesday, November 4, 2020 at 2:51 AM ET.  
  • North Carolina: North Carolina allows processing of mail-in ballots prior to Election Day, but tabulating cannot occur until 5 PM on Election Day. North Carolina typically counts its votes very quickly, and reported 99% of votes cast as of Election Night in 2020. However, due to tight margins,outstanding absentee ballots, and hurricane-driven election administration difficulty, the election may not be called for several days after the election. A new deadline has been placed on mail-in ballots to be received by 7:30 PM on Election Night, whereas in prior elections they could be received after Election Day, which may speed up this process. Another potential wrinkle is the disruption caused by Hurricane Helene, with 13 of the state’s western counties expanding options for voters to receive and drop off mail-in ballots. There was also a two week delay in sending out mail-in ballots statewide due to lawsuits over the presence of RFK Jr on the ballot. North Carolina also has a Voter ID requirement for the first time this year. Initial results tend to consist primarily of mail-in ballots that have favored Democrats in the past. In 2022, Senate Candidate Cheri Beasley began with a 20 point lead over Republican Ted Budd, but within 90 minutes Budd overtook Beasley. The AP called the state for Trump on Friday, November 13, 2020 at 3:49 PM ET, with Trump winning by roughly 70,000 votes.
  • Wisconsin: In Wisconsin, mail-in ballots cannot be processed and tabulated until polls open on Election Day. The initial returns are typically a mix of Election Day votes and mail-in ballots. Larger counties like Milwaukee and Dane have taken much longer to report their vote counts. Historically, these areas have been Democratic strongholds so waiting on their final counts will likely be necessary before a victor is clear. The AP called Wisconsin for Biden on Wednesday November 4, 2020 at 2:16 PM ET, with Biden winning by roughly 20,000 votes.
  • Georgia: Georgia state law allows mail-in ballots to be tabulated starting at 7 AM on election day. Therefore, initial returns are a mix of these ballots and election day votes. In 2022, Senator Raphael Warnock had a 40 point lead over Herschel Walker in the initial returns, but this dipped to below 1% after two hours where it remained until Warnock was declared the winner. The AP called Georgia for Biden on Thursday November 19, 2020 at 7:58 PM ET, with Biden winning the race by roughly 12,000 votes. 
  • Nevada: Nevada conducts most voting via mail with all voters receiving absentee ballots in the mail prior to Election Day. In the 2022 midterms, 80% of voters cast their ballots prior to election day in person or via mail. Mail-in ballots are verified upon receipt and begin being tabulated 15 days prior to election day. Mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day are counted if they are received up to four days following Election Day. Because of outstanding absentee ballots, many close elections may not be called until these ballots are received and tabulated. Historically, Democrats have only carried two of Nevada’s 17 counties: Washoe and Clark. In 2020, Clark provided 69% of Nevada’s statewide votes. In 2022, Republican candidates for Senate and Governor led both races on Election Night. It wasn’t until four days after the election that Senator Cortez-Masto took the lead and eventually won. The AP called Nevada for Biden on Saturday November 7, 2020 at 12:13 PM ET, with Biden winning by roughly 30,000 votes.
  • Nebraska: Nebraska allows mail-in ballots to be processed prior to election day, but tabulation cannot begin until 24 hours prior to the opening of polls. Nebraska awards electoral votes to the winners of each of its congressional districts. In 2008 and 2020, Democrats won Nebraska’s 2nd District and were awarded a single electoral vote.The AP called Nebraska for Trump statewide on Tuesday November 3rd, 2020 at 9 PM ET. However at 2:20 AM ET on November 4, 2020, the AP confirmed that Biden won Nebraska’s 2nd District, with 52% of the vote in the district.